EVs will account for 28% of UK new car sales in the period 2024-2027, according to Cox Automotive.

The data firm said this would represent a 160% increase compared with 2020-2023.

Cox Automotive has published a four-year forecast which it says includes data on fuel types for the first time.

It predicts hybrids will account for 25% of registrations from 2024-2027, while petrol cars will account for 35% – a 12% decline – and diesels for just 3%.

Cox Automotive insight director Philip Nothard said: “The registration of the millionth EV in the UK is an important milestone in the transition to zero-emission motoring. 

“But with two in every five new cars joining the UK car parc this year forecast to be EV or hybrid, and with that proportion destined to grow rapidly in future years, dynamics in the used market over the next four years will arguably rival the complexity and impact of those experienced during the pandemic.”

Cox Automotive has warned that consumer demand for used EVs may not reflect the pace of EV registrations in the medium term. Nothard thinks there will be an increasing oversupply of EVs into the used market, at least until values become less volatile and consumer confidence grows.

He said: “We must remember that in 2023, 94% of used cars sold were ICE and many consumers will likely remain loyal to this fuel type for as long as they can. 

“The average used car buyer is often seeking to replace their existing car with something comparable that’s affordable and fits their lifestyle. They may not yet be ready to make the leap into EV for financial, infrastructure or use-case reasons.

“And while the market for used EVs will now establish itself as volumes come on stream, it faces competition from manufacturers and dealers chasing new registration volume via compelling deals and finance offers.”

Nothard said that many potential used buyers were cautious about longer-term EV values, their comparably high outright purchase cost and the risk of technological obsolescence. 

He continued: “That isn’t to say EVs don’t represent good value on the used market or will sit on forecourts unsold – in fact, there’s evidence that shows the contrary is happening. 

“However, there is also plenty of evidence pointing to reticence on the part of private buyers while volumes in the used market are currently too small to draw meaningful conclusions.

 “This is by no means a picture of doom for the used car sector, but it would be naive to think the so-called new normal has yet been established. The overall used market is forecast to rise modestly, albeit its composition by 2028 will differ from what we’re used to today.”